
Following is a guest post by my partner Jason Mendelson. All of the thoughts and grammar errors are his. All of the formatting errors are mine.
Every year I go back to the University of Michigan and spend a day teaching undergrads in the economics department. I’ve been doing it for a few years now and it’s a way to give back to the program. Specifically, one of my former professors, Jan Gerson had a huge impact on me and I promised that I’d come back every year (if I ever got “smart”) and impart some knowledge. I’m not sure that I ever got smart, but I do like to visit Ann Arbor.
This year, I did something a bit differently. Instead of me pontificating the whole time, I decided to ask some questions re: social networks and music usage, as I’ve been looking at several deals in the space. I figured the undergrad crowd (of which I’m now twice their age, egads) would provide some interesting answers. I’m not pretending this is a significantly accurate sample, etc., so take it for what it is worth.
Over the course of the day, I was able to poll approximately 300 students, by my estimation. Here were the “results.”
I’ve decided that next year I’m going to come even better prepared to ask questions and try to actually add some science to it – instead of asking questions in the open, fill out a questionnaire, etc.
I was not surprised by the attitudes around music, but was surprised about the uniformity of Facebook usage and the lack of any other social network in their lives.
Anyways, there you go – my un-scientific, scientific study. It was fun.
Joseph Weisenthal
pooh@poetic.com (Anders Bylund)
pooh@poetic.com (Anders Bylund)
Pali Research downgraded Warner Music Group to a SELL rating @ $7.50 this morning (that is a 25% discount versus yesterday's $10.18 closing price.) The stock was trading at $27 twelve months ago (see Pali analyst summary below.)
Richard Greenfield, Pali Research, issued Thurs, Nov 1, 2007.
No matter how many people the RIAA sues, no matter how many times music executives’ point to the growth of digital music, we believe an increasing majority of worldwide consumers simply view recorded music as “free”. A new model for music consumption must emerge and that model most likely involves DRM-free downloadable music at no cost to consumers, fully-supported by advertising (within some form of social networking environment that enables consumers to discover/explore music). The music industry is not ready to endorse such a move at this point and even if it was, the economic model transition will be incredibly painful.
We upgraded WMG to Neutral on July 18, 2007 as industry trends bounced back a bit, following an exceedingly weak Q1 ‘07. This trend has now reversed itself, with Q4 ’07 trending to be the worst quarter this year. We are significantly reducing our WMG estimates for 2008, with FY ’08 EBITDA now expected to decline 14%, with recorded music EBITDA down 17%. etc.