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bradfeld

Following is a guest post by my partner Jason Mendelson.  All of the thoughts and grammar errors are his.  All of the formatting errors are mine.


Every year I go back to the University of Michigan and spend a day teaching undergrads in the economics department.   I’ve been doing it for a few years now and it’s a way to give back to the program.  Specifically, one of my former professors, Jan Gerson had a huge impact on me and I promised that I’d come back every year (if I ever got “smart”) and impart some knowledge.  I’m not sure that I ever got smart, but I do like to visit Ann Arbor


This year, I did something a bit differently.  Instead of me pontificating the whole time, I decided to ask some questions re: social networks and music usage, as I’ve been looking at several deals in the space.  I figured the undergrad crowd (of which I’m now twice their age, egads) would provide some interesting answers.  I’m not pretending this is a significantly accurate sample, etc., so take it for what it is worth. 


Over the course of the day, I was able to poll approximately 300 students, by my estimation.  Here were the “results.” 


  1. Students who said they DIDN’T use Facebook:  2.  Yes, 2.  And one of them was a 37 year-old undergrad (great guy, too).  I asked how many of them were “regular” users, as defined by 7 times a week and all but a dozen or so confirmed they were “regular” Facebook users.
  2. I asked how many of them used other social networks, or similar things, Flickr, Twitter, etc..  Shockingly 2 people indicated they used Twitter, 10 used MySpace about 20 used Flickr.  I was blown away.  My guess would be that they were using several networks.  MySpace was deemed “has been” material. Even for pictures, they are all using Facebook. 
  3. I asked how much of their “email” traffic was on Facebook and the vast majority said somewhere around 20% and growing. Many of they wanted my opinion on the Microsoft investment with most everyone thinking it was stupid. None of them could think of an applicable business model for Facebook and they all claimed they’d seen little to no advertising.  This was interesting in that there was a strong visceral reaction to the MSFT investment.
  4. I asked how many of them “bought music legally.”  No more that 15-20% indicated that they bought music legally.
  5. I asked how many of them “stole music” – 100%.  And all but a couple indicated that a majority of their music was stolen.
  6. Biggest concern of stealing music was not getting caught, it was that they “felt badly” for stealing it.
  7. Almost no one buys CDs, but those that do are all into classic rock and jazz (Led Zeppelin, Lynyrd Skynyrd, AC/DC).  I was relieved to discover that “classic rock” is still “classic rock.”  If the definition had become “Pearl Jam or Nirvana” I would have had to kill myself. 
  8. I also had the opportunity to meet with a dozen or so folks after particular classes.  One question that I asked them was whether or not they felt computers aided in their education or detracted from it.  Almost unanimously, they all thought that computers detracted from their education because of all the distractions of web surfing, media consumption and social network participation.  I was surprised of their self awareness and a bit frightened by the answer.
  9. Best question of the day to me was:  “How did you make plans with your friends to go to parties if you didn’t have a cell or email?”  I let them know about a quaint little device supplied to all dorm rooms called a telephone. 

I’ve decided that next year I’m going to come even better prepared to ask questions and try to actually add some science to it – instead of asking questions in the open, fill out a questionnaire, etc.


I was not surprised by the attitudes around music, but was surprised about the uniformity of Facebook usage and the lack of any other social network in their lives.


Anyways, there you go – my un-scientific, scientific study.  It was fun. 


Current Rating : StarStarStarStarFaded Star (3 votes)
Posted by Brad Feld at Oct 29, 07 10:24 PM | Permalink
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Ed_Rivera
Brad,

Pali Research downgraded Warner Music Group to a SELL rating @ $7.50 this morning (that is a 25% discount versus yesterday's $10.18 closing price.) The stock was trading at $27 twelve months ago (see Pali analyst summary below.)

Richard Greenfield, Pali Research, issued Thurs, Nov 1, 2007.

No matter how many people the RIAA sues, no matter how many times music executives’ point to the growth of digital music, we believe an increasing majority of worldwide consumers simply view recorded music as “free”. A new model for music consumption must emerge and that model most likely involves DRM-free downloadable music at no cost to consumers, fully-supported by advertising (within some form of social networking environment that enables consumers to discover/explore music). The music industry is not ready to endorse such a move at this point and even if it was, the economic model transition will be incredibly painful.

We upgraded WMG to Neutral on July 18, 2007 as industry trends bounced back a bit, following an exceedingly weak Q1 ‘07. This trend has now reversed itself, with Q4 ’07 trending to be the worst quarter this year. We are significantly reducing our WMG estimates for 2008, with FY ’08 EBITDA now expected to decline 14%, with recorded music EBITDA down 17%. etc.
Ed_Rivera – November 1, 2007 12:39 PM
richard s
The other day, I actually bought a real CD from a real shop:

While actually looking for something else, I noticed a nice CD on sale at 20% of its original price. (I really only wanted one track from it.)

Even at this price, the artist, the "label" and the shop are probably still making money - just not so much!

So, CDs are still attractive if they are properly priced.
richard s – November 4, 2007 10:32 AM
anthony_mitchell
Most companies are failing miserably at using social networking sites to develop and maintain connections with their customers.

Ad agencies are mostly staffed by people over 25 years old, whose use and appreciation of social networking tools is lower than among younger people. Ad agencies have not been able to articulate a vision to their clients about the guerilla marketing opportunities on Facebook and MySpace.

Sometimes an agency will have one person who is given time to work on Facebook and MySpace, but without proper metrics, supervision and encouragement, such efforts often fail to reach their full potential.

A Seattle-based online art dealer said that these are his essential websites:

1. MySpace – for keeping in touch with buyers and letting them know about new art and artists.

2. EBay and Paypal – for conducting transactions.

3. An email site to communicate with artists, many of whom shy away from the Web and who therefore stand to benefit substantially from working with an intermediary.

Ad agencies have been slow to recognize the value of MySpace and Facebook because those sites do not fit into the traditional revenue models of ad agencies, and because agency managers and clients are too old to have grown up in social environments where the use of those sites is pervasive.
anthony_mitchell – November 15, 2007 06:14 PM
anthony_mitchell
In comparing the two sites, the most notable difference comes from Facebook being more private. You have to have someone’s permission before you can see their page. On MySpace, users have the option of allowing anyone to view their pages.

Open viewing encourages surfing on MySpace. It makes MySpace attractive for companies and organizations that seek to keep in touch with their customers.

It is easier for someone to keep the postings made on their wall (personal page) secret in Facebook than MySpace.

The sensitivity of these sites for personal privacy provides lessons that Yahoo needs to learn. Yahoo’s privacy policies are garbled, confusing and downright scary, except on Flickr, where access policies appear to have been put in place before Flickr’s acquisition by Yahoo.

MySpace is seen as attracting lower class users than Facebook, hence the coolness factor waning for MySpace.

Facebook has good photo capabilities, but because access to photos is governed by a user’s overall privacy settings, users may prefer to post their photos on Flickr. On Flickr, a user can post photos without exposing their social networks or discussions.

Writing on people’s walls in both Facebook and MySpace fulfils social grooming functions, analogous to how other primates groom each other for social bonding purposes.

Rarely do you see signs of conflict on either site. A user can remove negative comments from their wall.
anthony_mitchell – November 15, 2007 06:26 PM
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